The Honest Answer: Should you wait for solar panel or heat pump prices to fall before installing?
For solar panels, the answer is no, and I say that having watched solar pricing for over three decades.
The long decline in panel manufacturing costs has broadly plateaued. The remaining cost is in labour, racking, inverters, and electrical connection, all of which move with inflation, not downward.
For heat pumps, the picture is slightly more nuanced, but the conclusion is the same. Waiting carries a real cost that most people underestimate.
Will solar panel prices fall further?
Solar panel technology has followed a remarkable price curve over the past twenty years. The cost per kilowatt-peak installed fell dramatically, and that long-run decline is what made solar affordable for mainstream homeowners.
The issue is that the steepest period of that decline is behind us. Panel manufacturing is now highly optimised. The remaining cost in a solar installation is increasingly in labour, racking, inverters, and electrical connection, all of which are subject to normal inflationary pressure.
Solar panels are unlikely to get significantly more cost effective than they are now for a typical Hampshire installation. The technology improvements that will emerge over the next decade will deliver better performance at similar price points, not meaningfully lower prices at the same performance. If you are considering solar, waiting on the assumption that prices will fall is not a strategy I would recommend.
Will heat pump prices fall?
I would like to think large-scale manufacturing might bring heat pump costs down, but the reality is more complicated.
The UK market has a significant number of manufacturers competing for share, including Chinese brands at lower price points. The manufacturers AES works with, Mitsubishi and other established European brands, are unlikely to see large-scale cost reductions driven by volume alone. Material costs, component supply, and skilled installation labour costs are all subject to upward pressure.
Heat pump prices are more likely to remain stable or increase than to fall significantly over the next five years. The £7,500 BUS grant exists precisely because the government recognised that the cost gap between a heat pump and a gas boiler is not closing fast enough on its own.
What does waiting actually cost you?
For Solar: Every year you delay a solar installation is a year of electricity bills you pay at grid rates rather than generating your own. For a well-sized 4kWp system in Hampshire generating approximately 3,400 to 3,800 kWh annually, the self-consumption saving at current electricity prices is in the region of £600 to £900 per year. That is money you cannot recover once the year has passed.
For heat pumps: the BUS grant is currently worth £7,500. Grant schemes have changed before, the Renewable Heat Incentive was replaced by the BUS at different terms, and the BUS amount has itself changed since the scheme launched. Waiting on the assumption that current terms will be available indefinitely is a risk.
What if you are worried about the technology improving?
The technology in any given product category improves over time. That is not a reason to wait indefinitely, because the product available now already does the job, and the improvement curve slows as technologies mature.
Solar panels installed today will perform reliably for 25 years. Heat pumps installed today, correctly specified, will perform reliably for 20 years. Waiting five years for a marginal efficiency gain does not recover five years of bill savings foregone.
The installer availability question
One factor that is often overlooked: installer availability will tighten as the Future Homes Standard drives a significant increase in heat pump and solar demand from 2027 onwards. Booking a survey and installation now avoids competing with that demand spike as the 2028 deadline approaches.
Get in Touch
If you are in Southampton, Winchester, Eastleigh or Romsey and want to understand the real numbers for your specific property, book a free survey.
Call AES Limited on 01794 830 404 or contact us to book your free survey.
FAQs
Have solar panel prices fallen recently?
The long-run trend in solar panel manufacturing costs has been downward over the past two decades. However, the rate of decline has slowed significantly as the technology has matured. Current installed costs in Hampshire represent good value relative to the system’s lifetime performance. Further significant price falls are not anticipated.
Is the BUS grant likely to change?
The current government has committed to the BUS grant at £7,500 for several years. However, grant schemes do change, the previous Renewable Heat Incentive was replaced by the BUS with different terms. The current terms are available now.
Will heat pump technology improve significantly in the next few years?
Incremental improvements in COP and cold weather performance are expected, but the technology installed today already performs to a high standard. The Mitsubishi Ecodan systems AES installs achieve COPs of 3.0 to 3.5 in real-world Hampshire conditions.
Does installer availability affect timing?
Yes. The Future Homes Standard requires all new English homes to have heat pumps from March 2028. This will significantly increase demand for MCS-certified installers. Booking a survey now avoids competing with that demand spike.
What is the payback period for solar panels in Hampshire?
For a quality 4kWp installation, the typical payback period is eight to twelve years depending on consumption patterns and export rates. After payback, the system generates free electricity for a further fifteen or more years.
